Unthinkable Futures
A fantastic list of future scenarios from Kevin Kelly and Brian Eno.
"15 years ago some of these predictions were far more outrageous than today, and some are more outrageous today than back then. We made short lists of ideas and emailed them to provoke each other. This is the aggregate of several rounds."
They're prescient in some:
"Revitalized cities squeeze out the urban poor to squatters' suburbs. Inner cities flourish. The poor take over the nearest suburbs, between edge cities and downtowns. With little transportation in the suburbs, the poor are really downtrodden."
Close to the mark in others:
"No more employees. Everybody is hired as a consultant, each negotiates a deal with various goodies (benefits, insurance, perks). Even factory workers are treated as "consultants."
Elsewhere, a bit tongue in cheek"
"Everybody becomes so completely cynical about the election process that voter turnout drops to 2 percent (families and relatives of prospective politicians) until finally the "democratic process" is abandoned in favour of a lottery system. Everything immediately improves."
And aspirational:
"American education works. Revived by vouchers, a longer school year, private schools and for-profit schools, the majority of Americans (though not the most disadvantaged) get the best education in the world."
That these ideas, even 15 years ago, are so on the ball is no surprise I suppose, coming as the do from Eno and Kelly.
You can see the maturation of these scenario planning exercises in initiatives such as 'Long Bets', where scenario outcomes over multiple years are wagered, and the parent organisation, Long Now.
I've been curious about Eno and Kelly's involvement with Scenario Planning through their involvement with the Global Business Network; now we see the seeds of that approach.
Brilliant stuff; there's a load more in the post, do read.
